I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Here's why. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. I find that hard to believe. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. I just want Trump in. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. "If. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. He cares about the American people.. And its never going to come back.. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. . A lot of people think things are. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. We need election reform.. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). He is his own worst enemy.. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. On . 'I Should Start Voting'. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. This is a high farming community.. Your email address will not be published. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. I got a life. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Farming also is huge here. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. At least Biden is honest, he said. Pre-performance Lobby events. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. What happened to our Democratic Party? She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Their fear is real, mine is. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Weve never done that before.. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Our roads need to be fixed. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. This claim is basically absurd. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time.